3 July 2018 2018 08:45 AM GMT

E-Buses to Surge Even Faster Than EVs as Conventional Vehicles Fade

The latest long-term forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) shows sales of electric vehicles (EVs), increasing from a record 1.1 million worldwide last year to 11 million in 2025, and then surging to 30 million in 2030 as they establish cost advantage over internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. China will lead this transition, with sales there accounting for almost 50% of the global EV market in 2025 and 39% in 2030.

The number of ICE vehicles sold per year (gasoline or diesel) is expected to start declining in the mid-2020s, as EVs bite hard into their market. In 2040, some 60 million EVs are projected to be sold, equivalent to 55% of the global light-duty vehicle market. ‘Shared mobility’ cars will be a small but growing element (see below).

The advance of e-buses will be even more rapid than for electric cars, according to BNEF’s analysis. It shows e-buses in almost all charging configurations having a lower total cost of ownership than conventional municipal buses by 2019. There are already over 300,000 e-buses on the road in China, and electric models are on track to dominate the global market by the late 2020s.

Colin McKerracher, lead analyst on advanced transportation for BNEF, commented: “Developments over the last 12 months, such as manufacturers’ plans for model roll-outs and new regulations on urban pollution, have bolstered our bullish view of the prospects for EVs. The changes to our forecast this time compared to the previous one a year ago are modest, at least as far as cars are concerned. We now think EVs will be 55% of light-duty vehicle sales in 2040, rather than 54%, and represent 33% of the total car fleet worldwide.

“But the big new feature of this forecast is e-buses. China has led this market in spectacular style, accounting for 99% of the world total last year. The rest of the world will follow, and by 2040 we expect 80% of the global municipal bus fleet to be electric.”

BNEF expects the transition in transport to have major implications for electricity demand, and for the oil market. EVs and e-buses will use 2,000TWh in 2040, adding 6% to global electricity demand. Meanwhile, the switch from ICE to electric vehicles is forecast to displace 7.3 million barrels a day of transport fuel.

The BNEF team has taken a detailed look at whether the increased appetite for metals such as lithium and cobalt resulting from the rise of electrified transport could lead to supply shortages for these key metals.

Salim Morsy, senior transportation analyst, said: “While we’re optimistic on EV demand over the coming years, we see two important hurdles emerging. In the short term, we see a risk of cobalt shortages in the early 2020s that could slow down some of the rapid battery cost declines we have seen recently. Looking further out, charging infrastructure is still a challenge.”

The outlook for EV sales will be influenced by how quickly charging infrastructure spreads across key markets, and also by the growth of ‘shared mobility’.

Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, lead analyst for intelligent mobility at BNEF, said: “We predict that the global shared mobility fleet will swell from just under 5 million vehicles today to more than 20 million by 2040. By then over 90% of these cars will be electric, due to lower operating costs. Highly autonomous vehicles will account for 40% of the shared mobility fleet.”

The pace of electrification in transport will vary by country, particularly over the next 12 years as some markets jump ahead of others. BNEF forecasts that in 2030, EVs will make up 44% of European light-duty vehicle sales, 41% of those in China, 34% in the U.S., and 17% in Japan. However, a shortage of charging infrastructure and a lack of affordable models will hold back the market in India, so that EVs will make up just 7% of new car sales in 2030 there.

BNEF’s projections imply big opportunities for lithium-ion battery manufacturers. China is already dominant in this market, with a 59% global share of production capacity in 2018, and this is forecast to rise to 73% by 2021.

More information on BNEF’s 2018 Electric Vehicle Outlook can be found at https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/ including a free public report with high-level findings.

Image: Courtesy of Ryanmirjanic

July 25th 2018
Battery Boom: Wind And Solar Can Generate Half Of Worldwide Electricity By 2050

Coal is to shrink to just 11% of global electricity generation by mid-century, from 38% now, as costs shift heavily in favour of wind, solar and batteries. Wind and solar are set to surge to almost “50 by 50” – 50% of world generation by 2050 due to reductions in cost. “Cheap battery storage means that it becomes increasingly possible to finesse the delivery of electricity from wind and solar so that these technologies can help meet demand even when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining. The result will be renewables eating up more and more of the existing market for coal, gas and nuclear.”

July 18th 2018
ABB Microgrid In South Australia Strengths Power Grid And Improves Reliability

ABB will supply a microgrid solution to the Energy Storage for Commercial Renewable Integration (ESCRI) project, which will provide a more secure power supply in an area that has high renewable penetration into the grid. The solution will connect an ABB Ability PowerStore 30 megawatt (MW) battery energy storage solution to the Electranet transmission system enabling the value stacking of storage in the regulated energy market, improving power reliability. ABB has installed over 40 such global sites, serving remote communities, islands, utilities and industrial campuses.

August 15th 2018
Electrification The Key To Decarbonising Europe’s Economy

Electrification is the key to decarbonising Europe’s economy, according to WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson. He said: “according to the IEA, wind will be the #1 source of electricity soon after 2030, providing more than 30% of Europe’s electricity, but electricity is only 22% of the final energy needed by Europe’s economy. Political momentum is starting to grow for an EU target of net-zero emissions in 2050. To do this we’ll need to electrify heating and transport, where the share of renewables is just 18% and 6% respectively; that has to be the #1 priority”.

August 10th 2018
Major Role For WorleyParsons’ Advisian On World’s Largest Solar Power Project

Noor Energy 1 has appointed Advisian, the global consulting firm of WorleyParsons, as Owner’s Engineer for the concentrating solar power (CSP) fourth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park in Dubai. The 700MW project will be the largest of its kind in the world and as an Owner’s Engineer, Advisian will protect the owner’s interests by ensuring all contractors are adhering to project specifications. It will also provide a review of the basic and detailed engineering, manage risk and provide technical support during construction & commissioning of the plant.

July 3rd 2018
E-Buses to Surge Even Faster Than EVs as Conventional Vehicles Fade

The electrification of road transport will move into top gear in the second half of the 2020s, thanks to tumbling battery costs and larger-scale manufacturing, with sales of electric cars racing to 28%, and those of e-buses (electric buses) to 84%, of their respective global markets by 2030. As the supply of cobalt emerges as a potential risk to the pace of growth in electrified transport over the next few years, the advance of e-buses will become more rapid than for electric cars, BNEF states.

clean energy world Guangzhou18

 

Benelux_IF_MPU_181