29 August 2018 2018 08:45 AM GMT

E-Buses to Surge Even Faster Than EVs as Conventional Vehicles Fade

The latest long-term forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) shows sales of electric vehicles (EVs), increasing from a record 1.1 million worldwide last year to 11 million in 2025, and then surging to 30 million in 2030 as they establish cost advantage over internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. China will lead this transition, with sales there accounting for almost 50% of the global EV market in 2025 and 39% in 2030.

The number of ICE vehicles sold per year (gasoline or diesel) is expected to start declining in the mid-2020s, as EVs bite hard into their market. In 2040, some 60 million EVs are projected to be sold, equivalent to 55% of the global light-duty vehicle market. ‘Shared mobility’ cars will be a small but growing element (see below).

The advance of e-buses will be even more rapid than for electric cars, according to BNEF’s analysis. It shows e-buses in almost all charging configurations having a lower total cost of ownership than conventional municipal buses by 2019. There are already over 300,000 e-buses on the road in China, and electric models are on track to dominate the global market by the late 2020s.

Colin McKerracher, lead analyst on advanced transportation for BNEF, commented: “Developments over the last 12 months, such as manufacturers’ plans for model roll-outs and new regulations on urban pollution, have bolstered our bullish view of the prospects for EVs. The changes to our forecast this time compared to the previous one a year ago are modest, at least as far as cars are concerned. We now think EVs will be 55% of light-duty vehicle sales in 2040, rather than 54%, and represent 33% of the total car fleet worldwide.

“But the big new feature of this forecast is e-buses. China has led this market in spectacular style, accounting for 99% of the world total last year. The rest of the world will follow, and by 2040 we expect 80% of the global municipal bus fleet to be electric.”

BNEF expects the transition in transport to have major implications for electricity demand, and for the oil market. EVs and e-buses will use 2,000TWh in 2040, adding 6% to global electricity demand. Meanwhile, the switch from ICE to electric vehicles is forecast to displace 7.3 million barrels a day of transport fuel.

The BNEF team has taken a detailed look at whether the increased appetite for metals such as lithium and cobalt resulting from the rise of electrified transport could lead to supply shortages for these key metals.

Salim Morsy, senior transportation analyst, said: “While we’re optimistic on EV demand over the coming years, we see two important hurdles emerging. In the short term, we see a risk of cobalt shortages in the early 2020s that could slow down some of the rapid battery cost declines we have seen recently. Looking further out, charging infrastructure is still a challenge.”

The outlook for EV sales will be influenced by how quickly charging infrastructure spreads across key markets, and also by the growth of ‘shared mobility’.

Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, lead analyst for intelligent mobility at BNEF, said: “We predict that the global shared mobility fleet will swell from just under 5 million vehicles today to more than 20 million by 2040. By then over 90% of these cars will be electric, due to lower operating costs. Highly autonomous vehicles will account for 40% of the shared mobility fleet.”

The pace of electrification in transport will vary by country, particularly over the next 12 years as some markets jump ahead of others. BNEF forecasts that in 2030, EVs will make up 44% of European light-duty vehicle sales, 41% of those in China, 34% in the U.S., and 17% in Japan. However, a shortage of charging infrastructure and a lack of affordable models will hold back the market in India, so that EVs will make up just 7% of new car sales in 2030 there.

BNEF’s projections imply big opportunities for lithium-ion battery manufacturers. China is already dominant in this market, with a 59% global share of production capacity in 2018, and this is forecast to rise to 73% by 2021.

More information on BNEF’s 2018 Electric Vehicle Outlook can be found at https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/ including a free public report with high-level findings.

Image: Courtesy of Ryanmirjanic

October 16th 2018
US: EIA Data Shows Renewables Outpacing Nuclear Power In Electrical Generation

The latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is showing that electrical generation by renewable sources has edged past nuclear power. Additionally, wind and solar now provide 10% of the nation’s electricity, overall; with solar alone surpassing biomass and geothermal combined. Significantly, solar now triples electrical generation by oil.

September 23rd 2018
Battery Boom: Wind And Solar Can Generate Half Of Worldwide Electricity By 2050

Coal is to shrink to just 11% of global electricity generation by mid-century, from 38% now, as costs shift heavily in favour of wind, solar and batteries. Wind and solar are set to surge to almost “50 by 50” – 50% of world generation by 2050 due to reductions in cost. “Cheap battery storage means that it becomes increasingly possible to finesse the delivery of electricity from wind and solar so that these technologies can help meet demand even when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining. The result will be renewables eating up more and more of the existing market for coal, gas and nuclear.”

October 16th 2018
InnoEnergy, Deloitte: Smog Reduction Can Save European Citizens €183bn By 2025

InnoEnergy and Deloitte’s radical new research reveals that EU citizens could save €183bn by adopting innovative smog-reduction technologies to 2025. This is in response to the European Commission’s finding that smog will cost the EU an astonishing €475bn between 2018 and 2025. The report identifies best technologies to reduce Europe’s 400,000 pollution-related premature deaths a year. These key technologies include fast, interconnected and interoperable car charging solutions, solar thermal, and underground energy storage.

October 12th 2018
EES & IBESA Summit France 2018: Storage Industry Setting A Course For The Future

The ees & IBESA Summit in Strasbourg is the main meeting point for the battery and energy storage industry in France. On October 24, 2018, European manufacturers, service providers, project developers, systems integrators and research institutes will come together in Alsace to make transnational contacts. Supported by ees Europe, the continent’s largest and most visited exhibition for batteries and energy storage systems, and the International Battery and Energy Storage Alliance (IBESA), summit participants will discuss the latest topics and trends, and develop new business models and visions for the new energy future.

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