ees 2019
20 May 2018 2018 09:15 AM GMT

EV, Renewables See CO2 Emissions Plateau By 2030, But Far From 2 Degree Pathway

McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI), the data and analytics specialist that provides distinctive insight and support to the global energy industry, has released the 2018 Reference Case of its Global Energy Perspective (GEP) on long-term global energy demand. Major shifts in the global energy landscape, particularly related to electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy sources, mean that MEI expects global CO₂ emissions to plateau by 2030. However, increased global energy demand means emissions will remain at more than double the level required for a 2 degrees Celsius warming pathway.

MEI forecasts that by 2030 every fifth car sold globally will be electric and not just in early adopter markets. Sales of EVs will rise from 3% in 2020 to 20% by 2030, however, the growth in light-duty electric trucks is expected to be slower, growing from 1% to 12% in the same period.

Renewables are expected to take almost all the growth in global power generation through to 2050. MEI expects that in the next 5-10 years it will become more economic to build renewable capacity than operate existing gas- or coal-fired power plants in most markets. This will trigger further declines in the utilization rates of fossil-fueled plants, with solar and wind growing 5-10 times faster than gas. Overall, the additional global net capacity of power generation to 2050 will be 80% renewables, with China and India contributing more than 50%.

However, despite major growth in the EV market and the increasing dominance of renewables, a rising population and increasing wealth in non-OECD countries will drive significant energy demand growth, offsetting CO₂emission reductions elsewhere.

Ole Rolser, Associate Partner and Solution Leader at MEI, comments: “Despite the significant momentum around EVs and renewable energy sources taking an increasing share of the power market, energy-related emissions remain flat from 2030 to 2050. As developing countries continue to rely heavily on cheap coal, non-OECD energy demand will replace the efficiency gains made by OECD countries. To realize the 2 degrees pathway scenario, we’d have to see much broader, much more disruptive change than what we’re seeing now.”

GEP was developed by MEI supported by McKinsey and energy experts globally and across industries. It delivers long-term projections on how the energy transition will unfold to 2050 across 145 countries, 28 sectors, and 57 energy types.

McKinsey Energy Insights, a specialist analytics unit within McKinsey, provides distinctive analysis, insights, and support to energy players. MEI’s dedicated specialists apply proprietary tools and methodologies and a data-driven approach. With its strong ties with McKinsey’s oil and gas consulting practice and collaborations with the wider McKinsey network, its research and analysis yield knowledge available nowhere else.

They have over 100 dedicated specialists, across London, Houston, Singapore, Amsterdam, and Wroclaw and an extended network, as part of McKinsey & Company, of over 500 energy specialists, in 105 offices across the globe. Focused on integrating market insight with analytics, MEI combines McKinsey’s industry knowledge and expertise with rigorous analytics delivered in market outlooks and cloud-based analytics software, bespoke scenario planning, and performance improvement programs.

December 11th 2018
Corporate Sourcing of Renewables Growing, Taking Place in 75 Countries

Companies in 75 countries actively sourced 465 terawatt hours (TWh) of renewable energy in 2017, an amount close to the overall electricity demand of France, according to a new report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). With the continued decline in the costs of renewables, the report suggests, corporate demand will continue to increase as companies seek to reduce electricity bills, hedge against future price spikes and address sustainability concerns.

November 30th 2018
Senvion Consolidates With Bhuj Wind Farm: Total Order Book In India Exceeds 1GW

Senvion has signed a conditional 300 MW contract with alfanar on the supply and installation of 131 Senvion 2.3M130 turbines for the Bhuj Wind Project. alfanar is one of the leading developers for clean energy in Asia, Africa and Europe. The wind project in Gujarat is part of the Round 5 bidding of Solar Energy Corporation of India Limited – a company of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Government of India.

December 3rd 2018
EU Approves Ambitious Energy Efficiency Goals, Encourages Clean Energy Feed-In

Europeans will now be entitled to consume, store and sell the renewable energy they produce in line with ambitious targets set by the EU. The targets are to be reviewed by 2023, and can only be raised, not lowered. By making energy more efficient, Europeans will see their energy bills reduced. In addition, Europe will reduce its reliance on external suppliers of oil and gas, improve local air quality and protect the climate. For the first time, member states will also be obliged to establish specific energy efficiency measures to the benefit of those affected by energy poverty. Member states must also ensure that citizens are entitled to generate renewable energy for their own consumption, to store it and to sell excess production.

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